Translate Page To German Tranlate Page To Spanish Translate Page To French Translate Page To Italian Translate Page To Japanese Translate Page To Korean Translate Page To Portuguese Translate Page To Chinese
  Number Times Read : 565    Word Count: 2008  
Categories

Arts & Entertainment
Business
Career
Cars and Trucks
Celebrities
Communications
Computers
Culture and Society
Disease & Illness
Environment
Fashion
Finance
Food & Beverage
Health & Fitness
Hobbies
Home & Family
Inspirational
Internet Business
Legal
Online Shopping
Pets & Animals
Politics
Product Reviews
Recreation & Sports
Reference & Education
Religion
Self Improvement
Travel & Leisure
Vehicles
Womens Issues
Writing & Speaking
 


   

The Behavior Of Share Market And Ways To Predict It



[Valid RSS feed]  Category Rss Feed - http://articlespromoter.com/rss.php?rss=57
By : Tarun Jaswani    99 or more times read
Submitted 0000-00-00 00:00:00
From experience we know that investors may temporarily pull financial prices away from their long term trend level. Over-reactions may occur so that excessive optimism (euphoria) may drive prices unduly high or excessive pessimism may drive prices unduly low. New theoretical and empirical arguments have been put forward against the notion that financial markets are efficient.

According to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), only changes in fundamental factors, such as profits or dividends, ought to affect share prices. (But this largely theoretic academic viewpoint also predicts that little or no trading should take place contrary to fact since prices are already at or near equilibrium, having priced in all public knowledge.) But the efficient-market hypothesis is sorely tested by such events as the stock market crash in 1987, when the Dow Jones index plummeted 22.6 percent the largest-ever one-day fall in the United States. This event demonstrated that share prices can fall dramatically even though, to this day, it is impossible to fix a definite cause: a thorough search failed to detect any specific or unexpected development that might account for the crash.

It also seems to be the case more generally that many price movements are not occasioned by new information; a study of the fifty largest one-day share price movements in the United States in the post-war period confirms this.[3] Moreover, while the EMH predicts that all price movement (in the absence of change in fundamental information) is random (i.e., non-trending), many studies have shown a marked tendency for the stock market to trend over time periods of weeks or longer.

Various explanations for large price movements have been promulgated. For instance, some research has shown that changes in estimated risk, and the use of certain strategies, such as stop-loss limits and Value at Risk limits, theoretically could cause financial markets to overreact.

Other research has shown that psychological factors may result in exaggerated stock price movements. Psychological research has demonstrated that people are predisposed to 'seeing' patterns, and often will perceive a pattern in what is, in fact, just noise. (Something like seeing familiar shapes in clouds or ink blots.) In the present context this means that a succession of good news items about a company may lead investors to overreact positively (unjustifiably driving the price up). A period of good returns also boosts the investor's self-confidence, reducing his (psychological) risk threshold.[4]

Another phenomenon also from psychology that works against an objective assessment is group thinking. As social animals, it is not easy to stick to an opinion that differs markedly from that of a majority of the group. An example with which one may be familiar is the reluctance to enter a restaurant that is empty; people generally prefer to have their opinion validated by those of others in the group.

In one paper the authors draw an analogy with gambling.[5] In normal times the market behaves like a game of roulette; the probabilities are known and largely independent of the investment decisions of the different players. In times of market stress, however, the game becomes more like poker (herding behavior takes over). The players now must give heavy weight to the psychology of other investors and how they are likely to react psychologically.

The stock market, as any other business, is quite unforgiving of amateurs. Inexperienced investors rarely get the assistance and support they need. In the period running up to the recent Nasdaq crash, less than 1 per cent of the analyst's recommendations had been to sell (and even during the 2000 - 2002 crash, the average did not rise above 5%). The media amplified the general euphoria, with reports of rapidly rising share prices and the notion that large sums of money could be quickly earned in the so-called new economy stock market. (And later amplified the gloom which descended during the 2000 - 2002 crash, so that by summer of 2002, predictions of a DOW average below 5000 were quite common.)
Author Resource:- Get Top Shares Tips


and share market tips that work.
Article From Articles Promoter Article Directory

HTML Ready Article. Click on the "Copy" button to copy into your clipboard.




Firefox users please select/copy/paste as usual
New Members
select
Sign up
select
learn more
Affiliate Sign in
Affiliate Sign In
 
Nav Menu
Home
Login
Submit Articles
Submission Guidelines
Top Articles
Link Directory
About Us
Contact Us
Privacy Policy
RSS Feeds

Actions
Print This Article
Add To Favorites

 

Free Article Submission

Website Security Test